Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 168.06

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3:59 PM EST

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To: David E. Taylor who wrote (119273)	5/28/2002 6:25:25 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Read Replies (1) of 152472

The 170M Cum CDMA sub forecast is on page 8 of this presentation qualcomm.com It's said to be an average of three external forecasts ranging from one to eight months old On page 7, they present forecasts for CDMA handset sales. The 2002 average (of four external forecasts ranging in age from 1 to four months) is said to be 81M 170M seems a very unrealistic forecast for y/e 2002. For the last six quarters net worldwide CDMA adds have ranged from 6M to 10M per Qrtr. During the same period, Q's MSM chipset output has ranged from 13-16M. To actually add 50M net subscribers in the next 3 Qtrs would require a dramatic increase in Q's production rate, much lower than historic churn, or a big drop in Q's chip market share; the first two aren't very likely, and the third isn't particularly desireable (or likely, imo)

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