Have noticed the same, and in general agree to a degree, except the comment about <still early in this bull market>. Unless you define 400% gains and parabolics as "early", I'd say we are getting "down the road" with this. In terms of using this thread as an indicator, it appears as if there are more threads (about all SDII discusses anymore, and I've always used that one for energy) out there discussing this sector, so we've been thinned out some. Postings here are way up from late last year, although I'll admit mine are down. Most of the old regulars are contrarians and like me are mostly scratching our heads and going about the task of distributing and/or reallocating and planning for future exits. Although I sure wouldn't rule out an absolute "internet-like" frenzy in the sector, that is not something I'm playing for.
It is important from a risk management point of view to recognize the extreme volatility of the junior sector in particular, and the overvaluation of the Gold Bugs index especially. My intermediate term concern is that the powers to be may attempt a full court press to suppress this POG rally. I say that because I truly believe that some big important financial institutions are in trouble from it. They could be successful for awhile and that could hurt a lot of people willing to speculate on this moving train, especially those who have arrived late, have little conviction, or are just momo speculators. And there are more and more of those as we surge higher.
Still I'm torn, as I listened to Lawrence Kudlow last night say he'd be a seller of gold now. I thought to myself, "how nice Lawrence, EXCEPT YOU HAVE NO GOLD TO SELL" <vbg>. |
