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Strategies & Market Trends : Complacency Indexes

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To: bob wallace who wrote (1371)5/29/2002 10:45:03 AM
From: TechTrader42  Read Replies (1) of 1487
 
The CI's aren't close to a bottom yet, Bob.

People were calling the bottom yesterday, hilariously enough.

I don't know about the Sept. lows. Techs remain way overvalued. So does the market as a whole. DecisionPoint says the S&P GAAP P/E is over 40. Historically, 20 has been overbought. Even if an economic recovery were guaranteed, techs would be overvalued. But there are all sorts of uncertainties -- uncertainties that should not be ignored, no matter what the carnival barkers say on CNBS (or the saffron-robed ignoramuses and petulant, peevish, pathetic permabulls on SI).

The Naz CI's are in the upper midrange in the ST and MT, and lower midrange for the LT. The direction is currently down. The S&P CI's are in the lower midrange in the ST and MT, and upper midrange in the LT. The direction is down. The current signals have all been sell/short this week.

The Naz might retest 1560.
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