RTS,
Your bearishness is right on target, IMO. As long as your time horizon is short term, there's little out there that can currently act as a catalyst for this sector. Individually, stocks may selloff to levels that worth buying in but as a group there's little to get excited about.
One still needs to view the big picture - which is improving substantially from where it was a few months ago. I would take issue with your comments that demand is growing but not fast enough. It may not be fast enough for you or for most market "analysts" but demand is moving in the right direction. I'm not sure what your expectations are but it seems to me that so many people have expected a dramatic turn around. Well, as you are aware, that's not going to happen in the next 3 or 4 weeks.
The big picture currently has the dollar falling against most currencies, gold soaring-compared to the past few years, oil+gas prices relatively high, concerns about the political turmoil in many sections of the world, and all this on top of the market hangover left from two of the greatest bull market tops ever seen (nasdaq down 66% from it's peak and the nikkei was down over 70%). Add terrorism, Enronism, Analystgate (or whatever they are calling the bullshit perpetrated by ML and all the other scum bags during the Internet stock boom/hype) and we get a lot of reasons people are negative on US stocks in general and especially tech associated stocks - where the semis fall.
Until there's a reason to change our perspective, we need to acknowledge that the path of least resistance is down. Even with this information, one needs to keep an open mind about the future of this sector. |
