Yes, articles like that, plus the never-ending GAAP losses, are why I'm backing off from QCOM. I still think that, at some point, the wireless data tornado will happen. And I still believe that QCOM is going to benefit more from that, than any other company. But, more and more, 3G looks like a jigsaw puzzle, with some critical pieces missing. And nobody has the cash, or even the borrowing ability, to buy those pieces. Venture capital is going into biotech and storage, not wireless. So the pretty picture will remain incomplete. And profits that were expected in 2002-2004, are fading into 2005-2010.
The market isn't worried about the things that bother me. I worry about the Creative Accounting, and the way QCOM seems to need to bribe other companies into being a part of their value chain. The market is worrying about those pro forma numbers that are flattening. I worry about the lack of profits, and the market worrys about the lack of growth in "profits".
And I also worry that the market isn't going to use the "profit" yardstick much longer. Sooner or later, on a QCOM conference call, an analyst will ask for forward guidance, using GAAP. I wonder what management will say. |
