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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: maceng2 who wrote (168982)5/30/2002 8:22:17 AM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
Pearly:

Perhaps, but technical charts leave me cold as I am in Mike Burke's camp.... "charts work until they don't". (g)

From my perspective, the US economy is rolling over. And the signs of this are multiplying. At some point, this snowball heading down the mountainside becomes an avalanche. I simply can't see any reason to play against this potent trend.

Yes, the Fed can and will try to deflect or slow this ugly reality, but it has fired most of its ammo and the results have been desultory. So what does the Fed do for an encore now?

I am well aware that we will have to survive the normal violent bear market rallies, but currently, there are just too many things going against the market and the valuations are just too insane for the market's descent to be terminated. Given this perspective, I will remain primarily a short (hopefully a nimble one), until this debt catharsis is completed..... and it is likely to take at least a couple of years to run its course (unless we BK).

I will remain long a few carefully selected companies that I believe "will do well in bad times" and I will remain well exposed to gold juniors, but most of the activity will be devoted to Vaderian activities.

Best, Earlie
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