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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (3332)	5/30/2002 9:02:08 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95546

Surprise! The semiconductor group is oversold in my opinion. My screen now shows 50 stocks with RSI's of 20% or lower in the group. This includes many big names. This morning we will open lower. There is not doubt of that happening. Soon we may be testing the 455 that we bounced off of earlier in May. I still think there is a good chance we will bounce back higher from there at least briefly. From Briefing.com: GNSS falls 9% in pre-market GNSS Genesis Microchip: Pru cutting estimates; Unterberg downgrades (23.36) Prudential cutting estimates following yesterday's DisplaySearch revised data for the qtr and firm's own channel checks. Pru lowering its JunQ est to $0.21 from $0.24 and rev to $55 mln from $60 mln (below co's guidance of slightly higher than $60 mln). For 2003, firm goes to $1.02 from $1.20. Pru says DisplaySearch update provided light on an unusually aggressive pricing environment. Separately, CE Unterberg is downgrading its long-term rating to Mkt Perform from Buy. 7:40AM Infineon says DRAM prices may fall below $4, Goldman sees $1.50 (IFX) 16.80: Reuters is reporting that IFX's CEO said last night that DRAM prices could fall below $4 in the next 2-3 months if the mktdoes not recover significantly; in addition, Goldman Sachs out of Asia says that if inventories at Samsung continue to build, the co is likely to begin releasing excess inventory into the mkt, and as a result channels are bracing for DRAM spot pricing at $1.50. 7:32AM Hewlett Packard, Sun Micro to shut down for week of July 4-- Reuters : Reuters is reporting that HPQ and SUNW will close down for the week of July 4 in order to save money; most U.S. employees of both co's have been asked to take vacation, and workers at SUNW have the option of taking unpaid leave, while HPQ told that the "summer holiday closure" would "help improve efficiency and enhance our ability to execute through the current U.S. market softness". 7:10AM Microsoft in talks with SEC regarding profit growth-- WSJ (MSFT) 52.05: The Wall Street Journal reports that MSFT and the SEC are in negotiations to resolve long-standing SEC allegations that the co artificially diminished its results to satisfy Wall Street's demands for steady rev and profit growth. Reportedly, MSFT will not have to pay a fine, but may face civil charges that the co failed to keep accurate records. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t The VIX is rising too. I believe we are closing in on that bottom. RtS

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