KB, I don't think the gold story is a TA story at all. I think it is nothing more than a run to value.
You have to wonder why people in Argentina living through their slow motion crash didn't go heavily into gold more than a year ago. Perhaps when you are that close you can't see the big picture.
Same thing in Japan, when the government pulls the plug on bank deposit guarantees there will be a natural tendency to run for other forms of protection.
Likewise, when the US government shows they will freeze assets of anybody they don't like - then there will be a tendency to get away from money stored in ones & zeros.
The probability that the US dollar will also weaken based on trade & central bank fundamentals doesn't hurt either.
The story on silver is also fundamental, stockpiles have been sold off, mines closed, and demand staying more or less steady. Same story for the last twenty years, only difference is now the stockpiles really are down close to nil, so the metal is rebounding.
Remember, the only real info on a stock is price and volume. You can judge the direction of change, the rate of change, and the rate of change of the rate of change. Anything else is sheer buggary of a data set too thin to squeeze any more out of.
To get the real story you have to delve into substance. A feel for investor mood is also useful, but more of an art than something seen in charts.
Sharp |
