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Strategies & Market Trends : Take the Money and Run

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (1328)	5/30/2002 3:56:15 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) of 17639

Musings about index price movements..... Spent some time today looking at the daily closes on the SPX since before the attacks.... The lowest close since Oct. 2 (when the recovery in prices really took hold) has been 1049.49 on May 2. But several times before and since, the index has climbed into the 1100's and then fallen back. It crossed 1100 heading upwards on 25 Oct., 5 Nov., 25 Feb., and 17 May (1 day only). Yet it has never fallen below 1049.49 closing during those eight months. That's a downward movement of less than five percent for the index once it descends below 1100. I think that means that anywhere below 1060 or so, shorting or expecting a broad based movement down is dangerous in the current range. Without a terror outbreak, the market seems poised to hold its ground here and inch upwards before falling back again.

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