Robert, I guess I'm somewhere between you and rob v. I think NT has a number of challenges that must be scaled to revive investor confidence before the stock can move.
First is financing to ensure no liquidity crisis, then balancing the books. Financing is not assured if external factors continue to deteriorate: e.g. India-Pak, Israel-Palestine, bin Laden, etc, as well as economy/telcom implosion. Balancing books assumes that there is a bottom to telcom capex cuts, and that NT has not cannibalized too much of their org. Both of these challenges has some finite possibility of not occurring.
Next hurdles will be to generate some cash and relieve some of the debt, in order to attract 'safer' money. NT will not be an aggressive growth play ever again, IMHO, so the next step would need to happen to reattract the retirement funds (if that is possible).
While all this is happening, they need to continue to build superior products and not be passed by some of the new hotshots. They will need to battle morale problems in their R&D staff to accomplish. This will get hard if the economy recovers before NT; top talent may jump ship to greener pastures.
Rob V: I agree with the call on the price action, except for the following edit:
A rational analysis of the price action would suggest THE INVESTMENT COMMUNITY BELIEVES the company will not survive as an independent.
In today's market, investors are presuming the worst, and a possibility of liquidity crisis becomes a reason to dump. Who can blame, but it creates opportunity for others. Is NT one of those opportunities? Only time will tell, but I agree with Kenneth that NT is a risky play that might pan out. |
