You are right, on April 15th, (#reply-17334875), i thought that the SOX would take out the 642 (and then the retrenchment would have been mild to 540), and if it did only a double top at 640, then the retrenchment would be to the 480/490. Well we did not even do a double top, we peaked few days later at 618, and that, of course, required lowering that target, thus my current 395/415 target, anything "irrational" with that approach? That is what "listening" to the market means. If the Nassacre does not get us to the low 1400 by the end of June, that target on the SOX will have to be raised. We are actually at an interesting junction here on the SOX, just as we were extremely "overbought" when more than 90% of the semis were above their 10 DMA, now that number has declined to the 7/8 area, very oversold, thus "calling" for a bump, but I doubt that bump will be of any significance and even smaller 10 DMA numbers may come in.
Zeev |
