EMC analysis:
geocities.com
Okay.. here we go:
Chart 1) We see a good clear breakout with volume. Noitce the rise in PVT.
Chart 2) Notice EMC piercing through the BB-bands. Time for a pullback or consolidation. Any slowdown in price uprally would be "healthy".
Chart 3) Osciilators -- they show overbought/oversold conditions
Notice the Stochrsi (55) (blue) is rising from oversold regions (below 30). Now, I'm expecting EMC to slowdown with consolidation/pullback (as confirmed by BB-bands). This is further confirmed by the stochrsi (14) (red) and stochrsi (8,5) (yellow) in overbought areas (above 70). Notice the stochrsi( 8,5) is peaking already. Remember the stochrsi (8,5) is a very short-term indicator.
Now, we look at the CCI (13).. This is also used as an overbought/oversold indicator. Overbought is considered when cci is above 200 or so. Notice it HAS ALREADY reached that area and falling. That means "according to cci", consolidation/pullback has already started. Notice how one can use the stochrsi (8,5) in conjunction with the CCI to forecast WHEN the stochrsi (8,5) will start peaking.
Okay.. so we know that EMC is overbought. So we should see EMC starting to pullback. Let's go further.
Stoch Oscilaator (7,3,10). Notice the red (fast) is overbought (above 80) and peaking. The slow line is heading up to the overbought regions (dotted).
Chart 4) Price indicators == shows direction and strength of price movement
Trix (14) -- also seen in my trix ribbon (bearish/bullish ribbon). Using the 0 as trigger line. We have bullish reading .. good
DAHL -- also a long-term indicator.We are in bullish area nad it is zooming higher.
DNS -- this is a binary indicator. it tests 8 criterias. If all 8 criterias are met, it will show up as 8. Look at how EMC breakout rally gave an 8 rally!!!! That means, we are moving higher!
MACD (13,34,89) -- long-term MACD. Spiking and moving higher.
MACD (8,17,9) -- shorter-term MACD . Also spiking!
Chart 5) Weekly view:
Big breakout price bar.
MACD (both weekly) are up. PVT (weekly) has a spike.
Notice the Trix (14) (weekly) is all bullish.
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Conclusion:
EMC will consolidate or pullback some. Not lower than 42-44. Depending on the support. Then EMC will zoom up.
Couple things to remember:
1) We have earnings coming out. So the earnings effect will outweigh any TA anaylsis.. So we will see what/how it effects EMC.
2) Notice, that we can compare this breakout with a simliar one with Sept 1996. Very similiar. Notice the initial pullback. See? That is the EXCELLENT time to buy if you are late to the game. And that is What I'm waiting for. Looking for a pullback and getting in. Notice, it is actually a consolidation for EMC to take a breather.
You can compare that breakout with the cuurent breakout. Compare with the indicators, volume. ALL very simliar..
3) One last thing: Notice how I used all these indicators to do TA. This is what I go through to analyze a chart. Just put up a bunch of indicators. Notice how many indicators confirm each other. That is a GOOD sign. With more confirmation, you have more confidence in what your stock is going to do. Notice all the overbought/oversold oscillators are saying "overbought". Notice all the "price movement" incicators are saying "bullish up trend".
Again, only you choose what indicators to use, and how you use it.
Any other comments/criticism. Welcomed. Again, all my opinions..
good luck
Hope it helps. |
