Zeev's NASDAQ prognosis, UPDATED MONDAY, MAY 27
(Today’s additions are in red.)
NOTE: IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE SO ALREADY, PLEASE SIGN UP FOR "ZEE COMPOST HEAP" ON YAHOO, SO YOU CAN GET NOTIFICATION OF THESE UPDATES AUTOMATICALLY. I HAVE TO REFORMAT THEM TO POST THEM HERE, AND ONE OF THESE DAYS I'M LIABLE TO GET SICK OF DOING THAT, AND THEN YOU MIGHT MISS SOMETHING IMPORTANT. {: groups.yahoo.com
1. Zeev says that the Memorial Day rally is over and the near-term top is in, at 1697.
2. Nassacre, Leg Two:
How Deep?
The Turnips say the next trough will bottom at 1519, +/-10, i.e., NASDAQ 1509 – 1529.
When?
The Turnips say the trough will be reached on Wednesday, June 12, at approximately 10:30 a.m., EST.
3. Following the low the morning of Wednesday, June 12, the NAS should bounce between 45 and 65 Naz points, (with have a nominal target/top for the bounce of 1574-1584). The bounce should last until the following Tuesday, (June 18), at the latest.
4. Final Decline to sub 1400/1450 area by June 28 +/- two trading days, i.e., June 26 to July 2. (Note: The Turnips think that one possible catalyst for the final sell-off of the Nassacre might be a disappointing semi BTB of about 1.12.)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
There is a possible, (but not probable), second scenario in play here:
IF the NASDAQ tick count reaches -1000 for at least three of the following four days –
• Friday, June 7
• Monday, June 10
• Tuesday, June 11
• Wednesday, June 12 (morning)
THEN this coming Leg Two could be the last leg of the Nassacre.
IF this were to occur, the Turnips have a final Nassacre trough of 1439 (for this alternate scenario).
NOTE: Zeev says there is only an “outside” chance of this second scenario playing out. BUT, given the way the NAZ has gone lately, that possibility is up slightly.
[Augie note: I know somebody is going to demand a precise numerical estimate, so here is the best I can do. Please keep in mind that it is quite difficult to translate scientific notation from Hungarian to English. As far as I can tell, the chance of this alternate scenario developing is within two standard deviations of
(Alpha * Beta) / (Gamma * Delta)
---------------------------------------
Zeta * Zeta
where
Alpha = the 200 DMA of Softie's posts
Beta = the 100 DMA of Smart Money's posts complaining about Softie's posts
Gamma = # of other people MJ stalked before he found Zeev
Delta = the 50 DMA of insulting comments made by PB
Zeta-squared = 2.5 inches
end Augie note]
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What do the Turnips see beyond the Nassacre?
• Short, but “possibly violent” rally/up-move, starting around 6/28.
• Stagnation and a trading range during most of the summer.
• In September, the Turnips see a possible retest of the June bottom. Right now they seem to think that the June bottom will survive this test.
• At the moment, the Turnips foresee a very strong fourth quarter, but that can easily change.
Zeev’s general comment on the year 2002:
“Last year we had three "great buying" opportunities, this year, we may have only two, maybe not even that much.” |
