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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 213.43+6.2%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: nixtox who wrote (81177)5/31/2002 3:13:35 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Nick,

What if AMD X86-64 has been running for one year or more when Intel releases its own?

The best case scenario for AMD is that Intel can't make it to x86-64 to Prescott (middle of 2003). There aren't any vehicles closely following Prescott for x86-64. If AMD has > 1 year, up to 2 year lead, there sill be some 50M Hammers out there, and it will be so much harder for Intel to introduce an incompatible x86-64 instruction set, and under pressure from Microsoft and from user community Intel is forced to release AMD compatible CPU.

In order for incompatible x86-64 instruction set to make it, Intel would have to start really pushing the development as we speak, and now, next 12 months happens to be critical time for Itanium. So you see the dilemma. Intel has to decide to either undermine AMD by pushing incompatible x86-64 (and by doing it Intel would end up fatally wounding Itanium). Or Intel can chose to give Itanium a chance, stay quiet about x86-64 (and software support for it), but that would fatally undermine the incompatible x86-64.

It boils down to ceding control of x86 instruction set to AMD while pushing Itanium, or regaining control of x86 instruction set (with incompatible x86-64) while letting Itanium sink.

Joe
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