Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 209.04

+0.7%

3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Charles Gryba who wrote (81200)	6/1/2002 5:43:11 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Dear Charles: Even Intel can't go from zero to 8 million CPUs/quarter in a quarter. Look how long it took them to do that with P4. Even NWs have not gotten to that level yet and how long have they been out? It will take Intel at least 3 quarters to 32 million CPUs and AMD will be selling more and more of them. Figure at least 5 quarters for Intel to match AMD Dresden in 64 bit CPUs. And you forget that by that time (2003 + 9 quarters = 2005/6) UMC/AMD probably will be shipping Hammers from their 65nm fab. At that time, they could be able to supply the whole market for 64 bit CPUs. As to Intel x86-64 being incompatible, they could release the new instruction set but, still need at least 12 months before the new set will be provided for (greatly depends on how dissimilar it is to x86-64) by mainstream software. It took Intel 2 years to recognize that Rambus was a disaster and to do something about it. It will take that long before letting IA-64 die by releasing IA-x86-64 and they will not coexist as IA-64 is too expensive for the desktop market and the original marketing plan was to replace x86 everywhere. It doesn't yet compete with RISC high end (witness how many RISC CPUs have had their life extended due to IA-64 failure to gain any market share) and at this point will not be used for desktops to get the volume needed to reduce its cost. Hammer has the potential to be that RISC killer but, after being burned by IA-64, the industry is in a "Show Me" policy. Those chances are very high at this point. Given 1 year to ship both AXP64 and Opteron, the chances are greater than 99% that RISC is killed off except for low end work. And all those OEMs that "commited" to IA-64 will commit to x86-64. A real performance, performance/price and volume powerhouse is what the industry was sold by Intel by IA-64 and AMD's Hammer will deliver. Pete

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next