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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (11850)	6/1/2002 11:55:54 AM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) of 57684

The last time orcl warned, it was on the last day of the quarter after hours (I think it was a Friday). I think that software closed up on the following Monday. You read the gartner survey on software. It took an official survey for them to come to the conclusion that I had written here several times and I'm just an average person. Geesh! I don't even get paid 7 figures and I knew when earnings were out in April that aside from year end budget flush, software was probably going to be a tough sell. In fact.... charts were telling the story that April would be tough.... remember the head and shoulders in sebl that I kept "worrying" over? It did hit the downside target, managed to recover (so it's hard to see that pattern now) but then went in to put in a double top. That's why I was comfy with my call that sebl would bottom sub 20's. It didn't matter what anyone had to say, it was in the cards already. It's nearly met it's downside target now, so I'd say that the downside is "probably" limited but I doubt it can rally much past 27.5-32.5 or so.... until earnings estimates go up... maybe after the Sept quarter it gets rising estimates again. Now.... how is it that the chart can tell the story without analysts coming out with research or CEOs knowing there is a problem? I don't know. Maybe it's just TA types with lots of money putting in orders to buy or sell based on the chart patterns, but there has to be a reason that they form in the first place. Maybe we're the last to know. Maybe "da boyz" who control the real moola know what biz looks like and research notes aren't put out till the pattern is already in place. In any case...... if IBM breaks 80 again.... something is wrong and we'll know about it down the road while the little guy thinks it's just "profit taking" or a "correction". TA

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