updated commentary
chartwerx.com
intraday links relating to commentary
chartwerx.com
update for 6-2-02
bank index remains on the downside of the apex and 20movavg. the early oversold conditions have occurred the following day as we thought might, although they haven't quite supported larger time period indicators yet. potential of moving average pressure as other indexes have struggled with already. the 890-900 area are two positive scenario's for the index, while to the downside our first support consists of multiple types in the 863 area. failure for thursday's doji candle to hold is the first negative. the last two sticks have the feel of one larger doji which would define the 870-90 range.
for the biotech index we noted in the last commentary that the sixty minute support would be approaching the low 400s. this has occurred and today's low coincides with that support. loss of this line is a negative. we mentioned the rsi5 double top as a potential negative on the daily, as well as the feeling that the stochastic had run its course without corresponding price movement. this stochastic has now crossed negative and will test its midpoint from the topside. a break of the trendline on the 60min, below today's low, would appear to open up the door for a retest of the recent lows and weekly support in the 375-80 area. downtrend resistance on any topside has moved to the 435 level.
the dj 65 finally penetrated its horizontal zone and today bounced back to within vicinity of it. we've shortened the orange dotted line on the daily to reflect the line on a 60min chart. cardwell's threshold has not been violated still on the rsi, however we do maintain the negative bias until it can penetrate a midpoint. some other very long term oscillators rolled over negative here as well at its own midpoint. over 2940 would be positive activity as multiple resistances occur there. 2850 is the fibonacci support level. here again short term oversold indications are not yet supportive of longer ones. also, the two day candle equates to a larger doji, which has an effect on some indicators to go flat or horizontal.
on the compq we noted in our last commentary this index needed to penetrate 1650 or higher to start positive activity. this exact area was tested today as resistance after coming within 8 points of the gap support at 1599. the selling at 1650 in the afternoon has once again pushed the compq right back onto the purple line we've been tracking on the sixty min, as the low end of a large wedge. that chart can be found on intraday1 for those who would like to revisit it.we've colored the daily with the same purple line to illustrate its origin. 1650 and 1599 are the nearest areas to watch. expanding that, 1582 the gap fill and 1560 the local low to the downside. if 1650 is penetrated, 1675 is the next intraday fibonacci level. as with some of the other indexes, the candle will show a higher low and higher high, however, the weakness into the close hasn't really allowed for indicator turns to take place on the daily.
the dj30 has the same early signs of oversold conditions, but as yet are not supportive of the longer timeframes. the serious break comes below 9800, while an improvement would require about 10100 again. the 60min historical threshold on rsi acted as the bounce area as it has when other indexes have reached them. the price activity currently sits on the topside of the 20movavg on that timeframe. still a potential for support at 9885-90 over the next few days, but the more important one remains the 9800 number. topside resistances appear to be 10030 and then 10100 thru tuesday. intraday2 shows the 60min chart, with the diverging macd's mentioned in last commentary. on the weekly, the 200ema is around 9765 with the familiar wall of movavg resistance around 9200. that 200ema could be serving as a neckline to a head and shoulders type formation.
on the ndx, the unadjusted daily trendline held a rebound attempt that also ran into the topside of the wedge like form we've been monitoring on the 60 and fibonacci level as well as resistances. the purple line on the 60min which can be seen on intraday3 represents the unadjusted daily line. the gray line represents what is being perceived as a longer term line whose most recent activity appears to serve as the low end of the wedge. this wedge does seem to complicate the bearish scenario the fibonacci levels presented in a failed attempt to recover the .50 level on the 60min and inability to hold a .78 fib once again on the daily in the general area. 1247 becomes an important topside horizontal now needing to be taken out. while to the downside, 1188 will represent gap topside support, a 60min fibonacci level, and the gray line moving into the area as well over the next 2 days. 1167 is the gap fill and 1141 the local lows on further downside. should the market manage to take out 1250, upside targets would be 1270-80, the higher of which represents the blue dashed "adjusted" line on the daily.
the russell 2000 bounced off our recently added fibonacci set around 483 and friday tested the horizontal it lost in the 492 area. that remains resistance as well as 500. if 483 is lost a move to the low 470s would seem likely. oversold conditions are more visible on indicators vs other indexes. once again of interest is the flatlined rsi as a result of the two stick formation while teetering on a threshold of 39 that has only been breached briefly once since october.
the sox lost another support at 480 and moved within 9 points of our next downside target of 455. support on thursday seemingly coming from the lower end support of a large expanded wedge, now highlighted by thick gray lines on the daily. multiple resistance throughout the 500-15 area. intraday4 shows some trendline activity and a fibonacci set over a long term 60min basis. as with the russell 2000, this index has the more prevailing oversold readings, while the two stick formation could be considered a larger spinning top form.
on the spx we were monitoring the low 1050s on the downside and the spx did manage to test those areas. a break below 1048-1050 remains quite negative. 1030 remains the next downside target on a breach. 1085-1100 are multiple topside resistances. some overbought conditions on the 60 min took place on the bounce up, as well as selling into the retest of the lost uptrend line and fibonacci level. 1088 would break the down trend by midweek. intraday5 displays the 60min chart.
on the transports we were looking at two ranges, the narrowest being 2700 to 2765 and both were tried in the last two days, closing at 2750, just under the adjusted trendline resistance level. this is the only index some actual turns are trying to take place on an indicator basis as we thought might happen with a close in this area. we'll reiterate the larger range as being 2628 to 2813. we've removed an old january line, but replaced it with a thick gray line on the daily. they were very close in proximity, but upon looking at the weekly chart, we wanted to represent a may 99 line to july 2001 downtrend line. on the weekly a move over 2813 would represent recovery of multiple moving avgs possibly setting up the next target in the high 2870s. in light of our new line 2700 takes on larger importance. breaks below become negative with downside target, again the 2628 area initially.
the broker index continues to show oversold in our fastest period settings, yet not supportive of longer frames yet. the adjusted trendline value is in the mid 440s, with a break there leading to a retest of local lows in the low 430s. anything below 430 looks like doom. to the topside watch the downtrendline and multiple moving average resistance up through the low 480s.
our next update will likely be one week from today late on june 9th, but available before the monday open. on the website, charts and scans will be updated through tuesday evening june 4th and will not be available again as well until june 9th.
milesov |
