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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 159.42-1.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: kech who wrote (23315)6/2/2002 1:16:49 PM
From: pyslent  Read Replies (3) of 197250
 
"If any of us had read this article 2 years ago, how many would say with confidence that they would have thought the price of Qualcomm would be at 32 as this time?"

IMO, it makes plenty of sense that QCOM has been re-valued in the face of wCDMA uncertainty. QCOM's business prospects have regressed substantially in the last 2 years. When it seemed inevitable that GSMers would migrate to wCDMA, the addressable global market for CDMA was expected to be 100% of cell phones sold. Now, who knows what will happen to the European carriers? Any failure of wCDMA represents a loss of committed QCOM customers. The sooner that QCOM can get wCDMA to work or provide an alternative that GSM carriers will commit to, the better things will be for QCOM. At this point, GSM conversion to some form of CDMA has gone from what was perceived as a sure thing (wCDMA) to hope and speculation (GSM1x). Now, its a matter of making GSM regret not offering competitive data services enough to switch gears. There are hints that it could be happening (eg., KDDI vs. Docomo), but its far from a certainty. Consider this: if every GSM carrier in the world were to commit to GSM1X today, QCOM's business prospects would be no better than they were expected to be 2-3 years ago, when everyone thought that wCDMA would be up and running by now AND paying royalties to QCOM.
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