Re--subscriber growth. There were, according to comments at the QUALCOMM analyst meeting in New York on May 22, some 1.4 million Cricket subscribers at the end of April. Assuming that subscribers continue to grow at roughly 100,000 new subs per month, the average number of subscribers for the calendar year would be about 1.6 million.
Gross monthly payments vary, with older customers still paying at the lower $29.95 rate. From what I've seen, the average rate might be closer to $35. Fraud increases the operating costs without increasing corresponding revenues, which is why it needs to be dealt with soon.
On the plus side, the company is now concentrating building out its services in the 40 markets it has previously entered. It is not acquiring new markets. Therefore, its capital expenditures are likely to be reduced substantially. Value added services, particularly regarding data communications, could increase operating revenues at almost no additional capital cost.
Bottom line: All the company has to do is show that it is bringing its expenses under control as it increases its subscribers in the 40 markets it already reaches. A positive showing will create renewed investor confidence. If this occurs (we'll know pretty much how things are going by the financial report to be released in October), LWIN should become a very good takeover prospect. After all, as long as expenses are kept in line, the book value of the shares is substantially greater than market value.
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