HERE'S LAST WEEKS NEWSLETTER FOR DA TROOPS...
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED MAY 26TH 2002
"CRITICAL WEEK FOR THE WEEKLIES"
Hello everyone, Happy Memorial Weekend to your entire family and friends...The wife and me had a large group of people here for the holiday it was very very relaxing and a lot of fun...Let us not forget why we are all still alive and kicking here...If it were not for those courageous sons and daughters that fought for our freedoms we'd be in deep trouble today...My hat & heart is off to the men and women in uniform on this ultra meaningful holiday, for us all.
Well to my way of looking at all the charts this weekend...this is do or die<g>..You know? it's "always" do or die huh?<G>....The all important Morning Doji Stars have to hold here, and in fact they must breakout period...What happened last week was all INSIDE Narrow Range Bars..meaning a lot of indecision..but..the onus was up for the week prior when we caught those dojis...sooooo..me thinks we'll continue the trend up from here this week...Actually the markets showed a lot of strength for 2 very important reasons..First, what with this constant Newspaper and TV crap blaring the attack was imminent everywhere, and Second it was the "lightest" trading week this year for volume...So while they tried like hell to push it down..."No CeeGar"...
Then those Wizards of Fall Street downgraded 26 stocks in the software sector and the entire Semi Equipment sector all at once?...Now this make me very suspicious...you?<vbg>...so they try to crush the markets, and it just did not happen..I am not saying we can't fold up the tent and cave in here..Heck anything can happen..BUT all of a sudden, those semis sure look a heck of a lot cheaper here folks...i'll talk about them and the bios later...There are critical pivots on almost every chart on the indexs that can make or break this projected rally i see...Quite frankly if the Pres gets home safely and NVLS has an upbeat CC on Tues we could explode...AMZN the very next day has a CC too, and, on an excellent looking chart pattern...So we are setting up for a "potential" rally here...
It seems to me that the economic news is just getting better and better, and of course rates are not in the picture here...i love this perfect slow growth scenario for further gains in the markets...while people are scared here we still need to focus right here on trading only...we are in the negative time frame or seasonality now thru Oct...Is there a summer rally coming??? i think we'll begin to see it now...The Late Aug Sept thru Oct time slot is the worst for being long, we wait patiently and buy that potential Marco low...I'd like to leg into more leap calls for 2004 thru this next dip before Oct...A 2 pronged approach, we never know the extent of any move down, and for that matter up..so if we're prudent we'll be buying low and trailing them up with solid stops for sure...You will not trade this market without hard stops...
From time to time I have talked about INVESTING for you and your parents and friends..I wish to revisit this important money making method with you all...I talked about MO--CAT--EK, these are stocks that pay dividends...slow movers but solid and worthy of your investable dollars...let's talk about EK..Eastman Kodak..a stodgy slow moving stock, conservative but useful for income for all of us...and for example only we'll use 1000 shares of stock here...
So you purchase either in your stock account or IRA account 1000 shares of EK at 35...or $35,000 bucks...This stock pays a yearly dividend of 5.11% NOT TOO SHABBY...what your next step to do is this..sell the Jan 2004 40 Leap calls...the current price is about $3.00 per contract...since you own 1000 shares of stock you can sell 10 contracts..1 contract = 100 shares of stock...so you immediately get sent to your account $3000.00...you hold this stock all the way out...your cash inflow is 5.11% of $35,000=$1788.00 plus your leap call premium you get when you sold that call is $3000.00 total almost $5000.00 bucks...or about 12-13% on your money???? how's that one folks...now let's visit ALL the potential situations with this trade...
1.---you own the stock at 35...you sold the 40 strike leap calls...on Jan 1st 2004 your stock EK has advanced up to 41...guess what<G>? that means not only did you get to keep that fat premium on the sale of those options, but your going to make the difference from your purchase price of 35 up to 40 or 5 points...you cannot get 41..you sold the 40's you cannot get anything higher than 40 for the trade....but that DOES mean you rake in an additional $5000.00 on your total investment...meaning nearly a $10,000 profit in less than 1 1/2 years or so...on $35,000 grand...????HELLO?
2...the stock remains under 40..you keep the premium and get the dividend total return 12-13%..
3..the stock moves lower to 30, your underwater by 5 points but you still get the dividend and premium...dead even...
and you can rewrite it again...
the risk reward here is compelling folks...now please use your heads here..IN YOUR IRA'S WHERE ALL YOUR DEAD MONEY IS LAYING THERE FOR THE LAST 2 YEARS OF CARNAGE.."PLEASE SELL THOSE DOGS WITH FLEAS" TAKE THAT CASH AND "INVEST" IT CORRECTLY...DO NOT SIT THERE HOPING, WISHING AND PRAYING FOR A RETURN OF THOSE BEATEN UP DOGS TO HIGHER PRICES..IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.....Get yourself in gear here..you need to wake up and fast...
I do want to say there are many many stocks in EK's arena that provide a solid dividend and move slowly...please do your own dd on a host of stocks out there..check the Dogs of the Dow too...good luck with this and use it will ya? oh an btw..electric utility stocks are fine as well...
dogsofthedow.com
OK LET'S DO ALL THE INDEXS....
DJIA/DOW---ON THE DAILY CANDLESTICK CHART IT HELD THE 200 EMA...STILL LOOKS OK HERE...10,250 THE 3 BOX UP...9950 THE DB(DOUBLE BOTTOM) 9800 IS A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK...ANYTHING OVER 10,350 AND WE POP TOWARDS 10,600 VERY FAST...ON THE 100 POINT CHART P&F...10,000 IS A "NORMAL" 3 BOX DOWN AS WE ARE STILL ABOVE THE BRL AND BSL LINES..
NAZ/COMPX---WEEKLY IS STILL BELOW THE 20 & 40 EMAS...THE MORNING DOJI STAR IS STILL THERE WITH A VERY IMPORTANT INSIDE WEEKLY BAR...A NARROW RANGE BAR...1725 TAKES OUT THE UPSIDE HERE AND 1800 IS A BIG BIG PRINT FOR THIS INDEX...I THINK ON THE DAILY 1695-1700 WOULD BE FINE AS WELL...1650 WAS GOOD SUPPORT LAST WEEK..ANY BREAK OF THAT IS NEGATIVE.,..
SOX---WEAK RIGHT NOW OFF THAT HEAVY DOWNGRADE LAST WEEK...USED TO BE THE BIOS<G>...480 IS STILL EXCELLENT SUPPORT RIGHT AT THE BSL...540 IS IMPORTANT FOR THE BREAKOUT ...THE DOJI STAR IS STILL THERE ON THE WEEKLY DESPITE THIS SELLOFF...AND WITH NVLS COMING OUT ON TUES BE READY FOR ANYTHING...THIS INDEX MUST REVERSE BACK UP QUICKLY AND TAKE OUT 560...TO KEEP THE PATTERN IN TACT...THE BULLISH PERCENT ON THE SEMIS REVERSED DOWN AGAIN LAST WEEK...THIS HAS BEEN A REAL YO-YO FOR MONTHS...NEGATIVE FOR SURE...
SPX---ON THE WEEKLY IT RAN RIGHT INTO THE 20 EMA OVERHEAD...A SMALL NARROW RANGE BAR FORMED LAST WEEK.,.THERE'S GOOD SUPPORT AT 1080ISH..AND BETTER S AT 1060...1110 IS THE BREAKOUT BUY HERE ON THIS INDEX..I THINK WE'LL SEE THAT THIS WEEK...
BTK--WELL WELL, THIS SICK CHILD IS HEALING AGAIN..LIKE I SAID A FEW WEEKS AGO..A BLOOD TRANFUSION WAS IN ORDER HERE...THE INDEX HELD THAT DB AT THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK AND REVERSED UP MAKING HIGHER LOWS..IT MUST BREAKOUT AT 440, MY BET IS IT WILL...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE...STILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS OF THESE STOCKS...
BBH---REALLY GETTING IT'S ACT TOGETHER BROKE A DOUBLE TOP AT 102 ON THAT RUSH UP OF THE BTK..WE NEED 104 FOR THE NEW BUY SIGNAL, IT'S ALREADY REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXS TO 98...I AM LONG THIS INDEX...
SMH---I OWN A 1/2 POSITION IN THIS ONE AT 41.70 AND WILL BUY IT ON THE NVLS "GOOD"NEWS...MAY LOWS ARE 37, APRIL HIGHS ARE 48..NICE RISK REWARD TRADE HERE IF WE CAN GET IT GOING...
ON THE VXN--WATCH FOR A BREAK OF 42 BULLISH FOR THE NAZ, 46 A REVERSAL UP BEARISH..
ON THE VIX--THIS CHART LOOKS REALLY BAD HERE WHICH IS GOOD FOR THE LONGS...MY GUESS WOULD BE IT WILL BE A TEENAGER SOON..24 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP..A SHORT THERE FOR SURE..
OKIE DOKIE...HERE COMES THE STOCK WE KNOW AND LUV....
NVLS--WHY NOT<G>...STOCK BROKE A DB AT 45 MAKING A LOWER TOP HERE HEAVY S AT 43...WE WAIT FOR THE NEWS ON TUES AFTER THE BELL...IT'S CURRENTLY SITTING RIGHT ON THE 200 EMA ON THE DAILY AND FILLED THAT NICE BIG GAP IN EARLY MAY...COULD BE A GOOD ONE HERE...47 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...44.3/4 THE SELL SHORT TRIGGER(SST), I WOULD WAIT FOR IT...
AMAT---HMMMM HERE IT IS AGAIN<G>..I BOUGHT THIS NOT TOO LONG AGO AT 22.90 AND AT THE SAME TIME THE THE JUNE 22 1/2S TOO..SO HERE'S WHAT I'M DOING..I WILL GO LONG THIS STOCK ON MONDAY AND BUY THE SAME OPTIONS THE ANQ FX FOR $2.20, YOU COULD BUY THE JULYS FOR A BIT MORE..COULD BE A SAFER TRADE...BUT THIS STOCK LOOKS GREAT AGAIN...24 1/2 THE BTL...22 3/4 THE SST...
MSFT---GAINING STRENGTH SO FAR..2 HIGHER TOPS AND 2 HIGHER LOWS...54.80 THE BTL...52 1/4 THE SST...SOLID CHART HERE...I DID WELL TRADING THIS ALL LAST WEEK WITHOUT FEAR...
QLGC---CURRENTLY WORKING ON AN INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN ON CANDLESTICKS...SITTING AT THE 200 EMA DAILY...RAN UP AND INTO 52 AND SOLD OFF AT THE DT AREA...I AM LONG THIS STOCK AND I'M LOOKING TO BUY OPTIONS FOR A BURST UP AND THRU 52, ON THE TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT OF 53...I WILL BUY THE JULY 45 CALLS IF WE CAN MUSTER THIS UP MOVE THIS WEEK...QLC-GI THE JULY 45'S...48 3/4 THE BTL..IT MUST BREAK OVER 49 & 3/4 TO KEEP THIS ALIVE...46 3/4 THE SST...
MYGN---I LIKE EVERYTHING ABOUT BOTH THE WEEKLY AND DAILY CHARTS HERE...24 3/4 THE BTL WITH A BREAK OVER 26 THE KEY NOW...22 3/4 THE SST...A BREAK OF 21 IS AN UH OH<G>...I'LL PLAY THIS STOCK LONG THIS WEEK...
EBAY---HEY I REALLY LIKE THIS STOCK A LOT..I TOOK IT LAST WEEK AT 54.50 AND SOLD IT FOR 2 POINTS, HECK IT RAN ANOTHER 2 FOR FUN..DAMN...IF THIS STOCK GETS CRANKED UP WHAT WITH AN UPBEAT AMZN CC ON WEDS..WE COULD SEE A MAJOR BREAKOUT HERE...I AM TAKING IT LONG FOR SURE...58 3/4 THE BTL...56 1/4 THE SST...TARGET IS STILL 60, BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT MORE..GOING TO TRY TO SWING THIS IF THE MARKET LET'S ME<G>...
AMZN---VERY VERY NICE CHART HERE EVERYONE...EXPLODES OFF GOOD EPS THIS LAST Q...BREAKS OUT AT 15 AND RUNS RIGHT THRU HEAVY OVERHEAD (O/H) R AT 16 1/2 AND RUNS UP TO 20 ON A HIGH POLE..IT JUST NOW REVERSED BACK DOWN "ONLY" 3 BOXES TOO 18 1/2...I AM TAKING IT LONG ON TUES...THE NEXT BREAKOUT WOULD BE 21`...20 1/4 THE BTL...18 3/4 THE SST...NICE RISING ADX AT 33 DAILY...
EXPE---ONE WHALE OF A STOCK FOLKS...NOT FOR THE NEWBIE THATS FOR SURE...I'M IN THIS STOCK AT 78.60 LOOKING FOR A 2 POINT PLAY GET STOPPED OUT AT 77.60 AND IT RAN ALL THE WAY UP TO 82 THE SAME DAMN DAY??? HEHEHHHHEEEE...MY STOP WAS TOOO TIGHT..EEEEEKKKKK....81 3/4 THE BTL...79 3/4 THE SST...VOLATILE BUT FUN...GIVE THESE BIG BOYS SOME BREATHING ROOM USE 2 POINT STOPS...
GILD---VERY VERY NICE CHARTS HERE...WEEKLY, DAILY AND P&F TOO..THIS STOCK IS VERY STRONG HERE...I LIKE IT AND WILL BUY IT...38 THE BTL..WITH 39 THE BREAKOUT AREA...THE 52 WEEK HIGH IS 40...36 IS THE SST...
GNSS---LOOKS LIKE IT'S AT SUPPORT HERE...NICE PULLBACK OFF THAT TRIPLE TOP BUY...26 IS THE BTL...24 IS THE SST..
NVDA---SAME CHART AS GNSS..TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT AND NOW THE PULLBACK, THESE ARE BOTTOM FISH TYPE PLAYS...36 THE BTL---34 THE SST..
MEDI---WONDERFUL SUPPORT AT 29 THE TRIPLE BOTTOM AREA...I AM LONG THIS STOCK BUT THINKING I'LL BUY MORE HERE...IT BROKE THE SPREAD TRIPLE TOP AT 34 BUT RAN INTO THE BRL LINE AND SOLD OFF..AS USUAL...NOW LET'S SEE IF IT CAN ROCK BACK UP AND OUT...33 BTL...MUST TAKE OUT LAST WEEKS HIGHS...30 3/4 THE SST...
CCMP---BROKE A SPREAD QUAD TOP AT 52 AND RAN UP NICELY..THIS A BOTTOM FISHER RIGHT NOW...HAS PULLED BACK FOR A BUY SET UP...49 3/4 THE BTL...50 IS THE 3BXRVUP..WE NEED IT...47 3/4 THE SST...
EMLX---BROKE THRU THE TOUGH BRL LINE AND STILL HAS "NOT" REVERSED BACK DOWN SHOWING SOME STRENGTH HERE...31 1/4 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT 33...29 IS THE SST...
ADBE---IT HELD 36 THE BIG DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB)...I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE DAILY CHART TOO...THIS STOCK IS IN A LONG LONG CHANNEL SINCE MARCH OF THIS YEAR..WE ARE AT THE LOWER END OF THAT CHANNEL NOW...38 3/4 THE BTL...36 1/4 THE SST..WITH ANY PRINT OF 35 YOUR DEAD NUTS STOP...
KLAC---WE ARE NEAR S HERE AT 52 ISH...BOUNCED OFF A TREND LINE I HAVE ON THE DAILY...55 1/2 THE BTL...56 THE 3BXRVUP...53 1/4 THE SST...WEAK CHART AT THE MOMENT...
QCOM---NICE 3 STICK PATTERN WEEKLY HERE..MORNING DOJI STAR WITH LAST WEEK A SMALL NARROW REANGE BAR...32 THE BTL...30 THE SST...
MERQ--TIGHT TRIANGLE ON THE DAILY...WAIT FOR 34 THE BTL....32 1/2 THE SST...
INVN---THIS STOCK IS ON A SMALL HIGH POLE...A BOTTOM FISH TYPE PLAY HERE...IT HAS NOT REVERSED DOWN YET....THERE'S A DOJI ON THE DAILY, MAYBE A GRAVESTONE DOJI TO BOOT "YIKES", NEGATIVE...23 THE SST...22 THE 3BXRVDN---25 THE BTL....
IBM---WEEKLY MORNING DOJI STAR WITH A NARROW RANGE BAR LAST WEEK..SOUND FAMILIAR???<G>...84 THE BTL...DOUBLE TOP AT 86, 87 A NICE BREAKOUT THERE...81 3/4 THE SST..
OK THAT IN FOR THIS WEEKS LETTER..AS OF JUNE 1ST ALL "NEW" SUBSCRIBERS WILL PAY $65.00..ALL CURRENT SUBS WILL STAY THE SAME FOR ETERNITY<VBG>...LET YOUR FRIENDS KNOW ABOUT IT, THANKS...
UNDER SEPARATE COVER LATER TODAY I'LL BE UPDATING OUR REAL TIME TRADING ROOM FOR ALL OF YOU...JUNE 1ST IS ANOTHER IMPORTANT DATE...
MY WARMEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL
YOUR FRIEND
JERRY |
