Merrill on 1st Qtr. server marketshares
by: skeptically 06/03/02 09:41 am
Msg: 136205 of 136206
Comment United States Enterprise Hardware
3 June 2002
Steven Milunovich, CFA First Vice President
Larry Tankel, CPA Vice President
Enterprise Hardware 1Q Server Market Share
Reason for Report: Statistics
Highlights:
• IDC market data for 1Q indicates that server sales have stabilized and even
started to rebound against weaker comparisons. Year-over-year revenue
declines of 20% in the March quarter were an improvement from the 24%
decline in December and the 28% decline in the September quarter.
Sequential trends were in line with historical seasonality.
• Windows and Linux entry-level servers continued to outperform Unix.
• Sun picked up nearly 7 points of Unix share, and IBM lost 10 points of
share sequentially. Different fiscal years can distort sequential
comparisons, but year-over-year market share comparisons showed Sun
regaining share. Outperformance at the high end allowed HP to gain 1.5
points of Unix share.
• Compaq retained a significant lead in the Windows market with Dell the
primary competition.
• Pricing seems stable the past two quarters.
IDC’s 1Q worldwide server market data offers
incremental evidence of continued stabilization in the
server market, albeit at weak levels. In 1Q IDC
estimates that the worldwide server market declined 20%
year-over-year, an improvement over the 28% decline in
3Q/01 and 24% decline in 4Q/01. The 17% sequential
revenue decline is in line with historical seasonality for the
first calendar quarter.
Table 1: WW Server Market Revenue by OS
1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02
Unix $6,203 $5,663 $4,619 $5,576 $4,714
NT 3,205 2,889 2,926 3,114 2,905
OS/390 1,057 1,185 1,022 1,323 810
Linux 447 415 397 428 429
NetWare 576 516 467 463 426
Other 1,907 1,876 1,719 1,985 1,381
Grand Total $13,395 $12,544 $11,149 $12,888 $10,664
Market Share
Unix 46% 45% 41% 43% 44%
NT 24% 23% 26% 24% 27%
OS/390 8% 9% 9% 10% 8%
Linux 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%
NetWare 4%4%4%4%4%
Other 14% 15% 15% 15% 13%
Year-Over-Year Growth
Unix -6% -16% -36% -34% -24%
NT 7% -12% -23% -18% -9%
OS/390 -14% -1% 15% 2% -23%
Linux 48% -4% -18% -19% -4%
NetWare -28% -34% -39% -37% -26%
Other -21% -15% -26% -9% -28%
Grand Total -7% -14% -28% -24% -20%
Source: IDC
Merrill:1st Qtr. server marketshares(2)
by: skeptically 06/03/02 09:41 am
Msg: 136206 of 136206
The macroeconomic environment continued to favor the
purchase of entry level servers (-16% year-over-year) for
incremental computing capacity at the edge versus
midrange (-25%) and high-end systems (-24%). As a
result, Windows and Linux significantly outperformed the
market with year-over-year revenue declines of 9% and
4%, respectively, versus a 24% decline for Unix and a
23% decline for the mainframe.
The relative strength of entry level servers was also
evident in the outperformance of the Intel server vendors.
Dell’s server revenue was - 4% year-over-year and
Compaq was -10%. This compares with revenue declines
between 22% for IBM and 23% for Sun. HP was down
26% as its Windows product line (-32%) suffered from the
obvious conclusion that Compaq’s IA server line would be
the surviving brand after the merger. Varying seasonal
trends limit the usefulness of sequential comparisons.
Table 2: 1Q Server Revenue by Vendor
Compaq Dell HP IBM Sun Total
Entry $1,351 $850 $634 $973 $754 $5,791
Midrange 193 - 714 582 503 2,548
High-End 220 - 208 936 326 2,325
Total $1,765 $850 $1,556 $2,490 $1,583 $10,664
Market Share
Entry 23% 15% 11% 17% 13%
Midrange 8% - 28% 23% 20%
High-End 9% - 9% 40% 14%
Total 17% 8% 15% 23% 15%
Year-Over-Year Growth
Entry -10% -4% -37% -4% -17% -16%
Midrange -11% - -26% -37% -29% -25%
High-End -5% - 40% -25% -24% -24%
Total -10% -4% -26% -22% -23% -20%
Sequential Growth
Entry -7% 1% -13% -30% 8% -9%
Midrange -35% - -8% -53% -2% -22%
High-End -36% - -15% -47% 16% -28%
Total -16% 1% -11% -43% 6% -17%
Source: IDC
Unix Server Market
The new HP becomes the Unix market leader with just
over a 34% share versus Sun’s 33.6% share in 1Q. Solaris,
however, remains the largest operating platform since
HP’s share is spread over HP-UX and Tru64.
IBM ceded nearly 10 points of share in the Unix market in
1Q on a sequential basis, giving back most of the market
share gains it earned over the course of 2001. The
company’s 17.3% Unix share in 1Q was roughly
equivalent to its 17.6% share in 1Q01.
Chart 1: Worldwide Unix Server Market – Market Share Trends
33.0% 35.3% 28.7% 26.7% 33.6%
26.5% 22.3% 28.5% 25.5%
27.0%
17.6% 21.3% 21.2% 27.1% 17.3%
7.6% 7.5% 8.7%
15.3% 14.0% 14.1% 12.0% 15.0%
7.1% 7.2%
1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02
IBM
CPQ
Other
SUN
HP
Source: IDC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
More info such as Worldwide Unix Server Market – 1Q Share Trends, Windows Server Market, Entry Server Market, but enough posted for here. skep |
