<The boyz are going for a cool BILLION>
Certainly not to be ignored as a longer term indicator especially with the shorts getting so aggressive. But what do you make of the net 80,000 short contracts in the S&P 500 by the commercials? Small traders are long 115,000. Seems like everybody has become an indexer and that's a bad sign. What do you think the Boyz are buying? It's a bifurcated market, so I doubt they are joining the index crowd? Meanwhile you have some New Economy sectors like biotech barely trading above cash values with nominal amounts paid for technology value. The broad tech sectors are seeing snippets of near net net type valuations starting to emerge, but many still look 20-30% too high for a mark down value investor. I'll have to admit that I'm looking over the wreckage though and have spotted some compelling values. Picked up some ELNK, XMSR, SCMR, SIRI, OPMR, TIBX and NUAN down here, mostly off of balance sheet strength.
My conclusion: we may see huge sector rotation and a short covering rally in some, but the S&P types still have work on the downside. Too many overowned stocks still. I'd like to see VIX higher, and Vickers insiders selling is running 4.18 and that's too high for a major broad market bottom.
Since late 2000, I've been one the biggest gold bugs on SI
Subject 51846
but even I'm now concerned about the 83% bullish public sentiment, parabolic moves, and enormous COT commercial short position. |
