O|O Forecasting Model:
Things that I think will happen before December 31, 2002
1. ESRAM will hit commercial production by the end of June.
2. Once ESRAM production is announced, institutional holders will double.
3. Once the institutions start buying, brokerage coverage will follow.
4. ESRAM demand will be large. $100+ mil in 2nd half sales.
5. Stock price hits $45 drops back to $28.
6. Company announces a 4 to 1 stock split.
7. Stock price goes to $75/sh on projected '03 revenues.
8. Company announces equity deal with INTC and Malaysia for dedicated FRAM Fab.
9. TXN announces 72Mb embedded FRAM in new cell phone SoC product.
Things that I think could prevent 1 - 9 above
1. Israel.
2. India.
3. Very BIG Rock from Space.
4. Mega Tsunami.
5. Idiocy.
6. France.
3 to 2. Not the best odds in the world. But not bad. Not bad at all. <Hoo Haa>
0|0
With revisions using RDS forecasting model ---
1,3,4,and 9 are likely true.
2 s/b 'institutional holders will increase'
5 s/b 'Stock price hits $35 for one day only (in November?) and returns to $23 (by EOY).'
re: 6,7,and 8. Could you mail me a gallon of that stuff?
Eliminate events 3 and 4.
Odds on 1,2,3,4 and 9; and "War" winning the Triple Crown: 5 to 2
Odds on 5: 30 to 1
Odds on 6,7, and 8: 99 to 1
RDS |
