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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19440)6/3/2002 6:19:25 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Dolinar,

My point is that any effort by the Japanese to maintain a weak yen will ultimately be futile. Yes, they might have some impact on today's exchange rate or even tomorrow's and the day after that, but currency exchange rates are like the waters of the great oceans. They seek their own level based on conditions not easily controlled by man (or Central Banks for that matter).

In the end, the Japanese Central Bank will have "lost" value after all of the exchanges. They would be better off just riding out the down business cycle, presuming they believe that someday the dollar will rise again. Perhaps they believe otherwise.

I know that Japan claims to have much in the way of cash reserves. I just don't think that meddling in the currency markets is a good way of using the reserves to the benefit of the Japanese economy. I do think it may be an excellent way to curry political favor though, for what that's worth...

KJC
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