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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (74164)6/3/2002 7:38:35 PM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
<<Another Missile Crisis?

I well remember the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. It was more frightening than anything we're seeing now. In fact, the threat of a nuclear conflagration was itself so frightening that it distracted from the high-volume dive and selling climax in the market (what they call a capitulation these days). But there are enough similarities to bring it to mind. Which leads me to hope it will end the same way. No nuclear explosions and a bottom in the market.
I suggest you inspect a chart of 1962 in a number of time frames to familiarize yourself with one of the most important bottoms of the postwar era.
One of the main differences this time is that nobody is sure the “ Kashmir missile crisis” is the major culprit in the market's current discombobulation. Second, the relative volume is much lower. Third, there are a lot of other ominous news events competing with and even overshadowing Kashmir. Nasty happenings in specific companies - criminal probes and suicides, not all particularly relevant to the total market -- and a weak dollar capture headlines of their own. There is no way and no urgent reason to know exactly what has the market gasping on the ropes. The important thing is to remember that “even this will pass.” This is going to culminate in an opportunity you don't want to miss.
The bad news is that the Dow and the SP-500 penetrated support levels that open the way for significant continuations on the downside. The good news is that both of these averages have positive TSV divergences. The good news is that today's breadth readings are worse (I believe) than on any single day of this entire two-year bear market, which means that this market is in an oversold condition. Yes, it can become more oversold, but this can't go on for long. -DW >>
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