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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: Brenda L. Greer who wrote (950)7/14/1997 12:43:00 AM
From: Lee Warzala   of 6136
 
Brenda,

I think you bought AGPH well. I am a long term and active trader in AGPH (small time). I believe that it will be a $4-700 stock by 2004. Though I might question some of David S's arguments, his insight is also worth taken notice.

Most of the short positions were established in Jan/Feb. There appears to be few new ones. At that time August options were available, thus early August may show a large sell off of the stock. That is, the shorts will try to force the price down by whatever means. Realistically speaking, they probably will be successful as there are no large holders of the stock (over 5%). A lot of institutions and individuals will try to lock in profits before this happens, then buy it back at a lower cost.

AGPH may still hit the 90's in July and will probably be back in September, but as us long term holders know, it could be in the low 70's in August (maybe even lower). AGPH is the kind of stock where people make money when it rises and falls. AGPH is the kind of company that will rise in the long run.

Keep in mind though, eventually the shorts will have to cover their position. Some will be lucky enough to cover at a low great price, others will force the price up.
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