Dave. Your contributions are not needed to make AGPH go to 140. I dont care if you are long or short. However, tear this apart because I can't provide a philisophical opinion on the importance of Dr. Patick's results on Viracept sales.
I will be ultra CONSERVATIVE in the fol assumptions and investment outlook. Lets assume the worst case in all areas.
1) Everything about the unique mutation of nelf is false. The fol info should then be disregarded: thebody.com
2) Double PI therapy holds no merit.
3) Roche will never increase their involvement in AGPH.
4) Compliance and side-effects are not a factor in the doctor's and patient's decision on the PI. People actually enjoy kidney stones (people don't drink enough water anyway), nausea, headaches, pot bellies, etc.
5) PI mkt will not be 2.5 billion in 5 yrs.
6) AGPH will continue to conduct sec offerings until there are 18 mil shares outstanding.
7) AGPH never gets European approval. etc. etc.
You get the point, everything doesn't play to the rapid growth in scrips that I think will happen. Now lets look at scrips to reflect the above: There are at least 36, 000
patients now, but out of extreme conservatism lets assume there is only half of that at 18,000 patients. Last week there was 3,011 new scrips thru the retail channel which is only 68% of the total 4428 new scrips written. Lets assume no further growth and that the avg actually goes down over the next year (because everything David S. says is true). Change the 4428 # to just 1200 new scrips per week on avg for extreme conservatism, agian. In 52 weeks, there are 62,400 new patients plus the 18, 000 patients now. This extreme conservatism results in 80,000 patients in US at annual wholesale acquisition cost of $5,000, resulting in revenues of $400 mil just from nelf for fiscal 1999. If this 400 mil sounds reasonable, a projected EPS of $5.60 (based on 18 mil shares) for fiscal 1999 is very reasonable. The 1997 price tgt of $140, from those sell side analyst, is based on a 30 multiple of F1999E EPS of $5.60 discounted at 15% over 1.5 yrs. , I sincerely believe AGPH will hit 140 within the next 8 months.
Ladies and Gentlemen, place your bets. John. |
