re: sell when the run up turns. That is the way the nasdaq has always played
I've been doing BuyTheDipSellTheRally since early 2000. In the last few months, I have listened to a lot of people, who were staunch BuyAndHolders through 2000 and 2001, who have finally given up. The consensus is now, 2 years into this bear market, that all rallies will fail, and LTB&H doesn't work.
Since that is now the consensus, and everyone is now range-trading and shorting, those methods will now stop working. Amateur shorts will be slaughtered, to balance all the amateur longs who DrankTheKoolAid in the Bubble. Current sentinent indicates to me that it may, finally, be time to go back to BuyAndHold. I am more bullish now than I've been in 2 years. Which means, on the next big rally (Nas 50% off the lows, probably taking out the 1/02 highs, is my guess), I'll go to 20% cash, rather than the 40-70% cash I've had at earlier intermediate-term tops.
I'll reevaluate my optimism, if NTAP and the Nas take out their 9/01 lows. |
