Briefing.com is now discussing what we were a week back as it concerns INTC. Personally I think as long as INTC is not negative in their mid quarter update that we continue higher until about next Wednesday. Note the large drop in the VIX today. The corresponding rise in the SOX has yet to take place.
From Briefing.com: Whether the Nasdaq is up 20 or down 20, one constant over the past few weeks has been light volume... Yesterday's trading was no exception... Though the tech sector managed to shake the midday blues and stage a late, closing rally, volume on the Nasdaq was an anemic 1.6 bln... Buyers remain reluctant to commit to the long-end for what we can now call the "usual" reasons: lack of earnings visibility, hostilities in the Middle East, no leadership, threat of war between India & Pakistan and deteriorating technicals... Until at least a few of these uncertainties/problems are resolved to the market's satisfaction, we doubt there will be enough real buying interest to sustain a meaningful advance.
How do we define meaningful? For starters, Briefing.com would like to see the Nasdaq composite move back above the 1710 (moving average)-1740 (trendline) area... As you can see from the chart below, failure to do so (in convincing fashion) would suggest that any gains over the next few days/weeks would be merely corrective.
Similarly, we would like to see the bellwether SOX index at least make a run at the 500 level, though more meaningful resistance levels are at 525 and 558.91... Before traders allow themselves to get excited about the prospect of a tech recovery, we're afraid that the outer barrier must fall.
Intel's (INTC) mid-quarter update, scheduled for after Thursday's close, could prove critical... If company guidance proves at all disappointing, the technical bounce that we enjoyed yesterday will be short-lived... Conversely, good news from the chip giant is likely to act as a short-term catalyst for industry/sector bulls.
Robert Walberg, Briefing.com
4:33PM Altera reaffirms prior guidance (ALTR) 16.60 -0.60: Company reaffirms previous guidance that sequential revenue growth in the second quarter will be in the range of 4% to 6%; resales, quarter-to-date, are in line with the company's previous expectations.
2:17PM Intel (INTC) 27.42 -0.08: JP Morgan remains cautiously optimistic going into mid-qtr update tomorrow; anticipates INTC will narrow its revenue guidance to lower half of previous range while raising gross margin expectation slightly. Firm expects INTC will meet or slightly beat their current rev/EPS estimates of $6.5 bln/$0.14; stresses that "while weak, Q2 results should not be disastrous:" believes a weak Q2 is already built into share prices (down 12% from their recent peak on 5/17 ). JP Morgan sees a short term positive trading pattern, with longer term picture cloudy.
1:45PM EMCORE (EMKR) 5.86 +0.06: This compound semi co has seen its share price tumble 60% YTD, most recently falling 20% over the past 2 days. Prudential defends on encouraging June qtr channel checks which show EMKR tracking in line in materials business (81% of sales) with guidance for flat seq. growth; adds that EMKR expects to be cash flow positive by Sept qtr. Prudential considers shares cheap at less than half their historical price to book of 4.5x and reiterates their Buy rating and $14 price target; names EMKR a solid value play in industry.
3:54PM Oracle: Merrill remains concerned about revenue outlook (ORCL) 8.49 +0.67: -- Update -- Merrill Lynch says that ORCL's reported announcement that they will meet the $0.12 Q4 est was consistent with their recently-lowered expectations; however, firm remains concerned about the rev outlook from the co, and says the co's ability to manage expenses and deliver $0.12 in EPS was not as much in question as what the outlook will be going into 2003. Maintains Near-Term Neutral rating.
3:27PM Oracle spikes on talk that it met Q4 estimate (ORCL) 8.42 +0.60: -- Update -- Traders citing Bloomberg are telling us that the co said Q4 profit will "at least" meet the $0.12 est.
2:05PM RF Micro Device Intraday (RFMD) 16.19 +0.10: -- Technical -- Stock trading towards the upper end of a two-day range. From current levels, look for initial resistance at 16.30 followed by additional overhead at 16.60. The intraday outlook would deteriorate on a failure to hold very near-term support just under 16.00.
8:26AM Harmonic net gateway selected by Charter (HLIT) 5.74: Charter Communications selects Harmonic's net gateway to deliver HDTV programming.
10:14AM Technical Levels : The last time we reviewed the Nasdaq, we were looking at 1600/1613 as potentially notable support on the weekly chart. When looking at the weekly chart, the primary focus is on the opening and closing levels for each week. The index opened this week at 1613 and we have yet to determine where it might close Friday. The point being that the technical picture as we discussed it Monday still has a chance to be salvaged -- with a Friday close above 1600. Nonetheless, this is admittedly its most tenuous state since last September. While the outcome for this week keeps us in suspense, it can't hurt to look towards the more traditional picture on the daily chart. While yesterday's pseudo-reversal left much to be desired, it did come on the index' heaviest volume in twelve sessions (incidentally, that session approximates the top of the prior leg higher). So on an intraday basis, caution is probably warranted here from both sides of the trade. A failure to hold near-term support at 1548/1555 could lead to a sell off of significant magnitude. Yet at the same time, swing traders and professionals alike are probably salivating at a chance to catch the next leg higher starting anywhere in the high 1500's. Broadly speaking then, look for downside support at 1555 and become very cautious on a break below 1548. Conversely, look for resistance at 1600 keeping in mind that a close above that level is likely to trigger buy interest. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com
KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 52 +0.84: USB Piper Jaffray upgrades to STRONG BUY from Outperform. Firm says its 2003 est of $1.55 is already above the $1.43 consensus, and USB believes there is upside potential to its numbers. Firm's 12-month target of $68.50 is based on 25x preliminary 2004 EPS + $6 per share in cash on balance sheet.
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t
So pump up the volume for us INTC tomorrow night!
RtS |
