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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.690

+1.9%

Jan 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: DiB who wrote (20227)	6/5/2002 11:46:30 PM
From: matt dillabough	Read Replies (1) of 21876

Lucent Technologies, Inc. (LU) LU: Comments From Supercomm 2H (Outperform, High Risk) Mkt Cap: $15,498.5 mil. June 4, 2002 SUMMARY * Lucent hosted a series of roundtable meetings with key TELECOMMUNICATIONS executives of its product areas at SuperComm. EQUIPMENT * We came away with increased concern about the CY 2H Alex Henderson outlook. * We have been concerned about the strong CY 1H wireless business falling off in 2H as the Verizon and Sprint Daryl Armstrong network deployments decelerate. Management confirmed this would likely occur but was hard pressed to offer an offset from other business opportunities. * On the wireline side, mgmt stated that they did not expect a pick up in capex over the remainder of 2002 implying the wireline business should remain flat. * With both segments projecting flat to down would imply revenue could be down in the 2H02 which is not consistent with Street expectations. * Moreover, while cost cutting should help margins, the falloff in high margin wireless revenues represents a challenge. FUNDAMENTALS P/E (9/02E) NA P/E (9/03E) NA TEV/EBITDA (9/02E) NA TEV/EBITDA (9/03E) NA Book Value/Share (9/02E) $3.19 Price/Book Value 1.5x Dividend/Yield (9/02E) NA/NA Revenue (9/02E) $14,243.0 mil. Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 5% ROE (9/02E) NA Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) 43.1% LU is in the S&P 500(R) Index. (a) Data as of most recent quarter SHARE DATA RECOMMENDATION Price (5/31/02) $4.65 Current Rating 2H 52-Week Range $8.59-$3.80 Prior Rating 2H Shares Outstanding(a) 3,333.0 mil. Current Target Price $5.50 Convertible No Previous Target Price $5.50 EARNINGS PER SHARE FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year 9/01A Actual ($0.39)A ($0.37)A ($0.35)A ($0.27)A ($1.39)A 9/02E Current ($0.23)A ($0.14)A ($0.09)E ($0.07)E ($0.53)E Previous ($0.23)A ($0.14)A ($0.09)E ($0.07)E ($0.53)E 9/03E Current ($0.05)E ($0.05)E ($0.04)E $0.01E ($0.14)E Previous ($0.05)E ($0.05)E ($0.04)E $0.01E ($0.14)E 9/04E Current $0.03E NA NA NA NA Previous $0.03E NA NA NA NA First Call Consensus EPS: 9/02E ($0.59); 9/03E ($0.11); 9/04E NA Calendar Year EPS: 12/01A NA; 12/02E ($0.52); 12/03E ($0.06); 12/04E NA

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