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Technology Stocks : General Lithography
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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (460)7/14/1997 10:23:00 AM
From: Ian@SI   of 1305
 
RL,

Re PSRs: Don't forget that with this ratio as well as most others, you're looking at the past which may not be indicative of the future.
... especially for cyclicals.

E.g. MTSN has a high PSR: MTSN customers were primarily from the DRAM sector. As the DRAM makers go to next shrink, 300MM, MTSN's sales will skyrocket (%age wise). If you use low PSR as your indicator on a cyclical at the bottom of the cycle, you'll miss a lot of price movement.

Similarly, SUBM is more of a turnaround situation. They don't have the money to pay for the equipment in their latest fab. Equipment makers are taking measures to get paid or get their property back. A year from now, SUBM's PSR will have risen sharply from the 0.3 even if the price continues to fall.

Just my humble opinion,

Ian.
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