respectfully disagree, Haim... but agree in certain ways
agree:
USA is not Japan, since more robust, better accounted for banks, more nimble to engineer change, more inventive to discover discontinuous technology, more willing to plow under bankrupt companies
this is not about culture, or tech developmt
above differences wont buy us much when it comes crunch time
we are more willing to plow under bankrupt companies
how about a few of our biggest NYC banks??????????????
unlike Japan, which refuses to do so
disagree:
it is about banking in the extreme sense
our BigBank the Federal Reserve has acted in a secretive manner to sell off 50% of our national gold treasure
in 1970's the Fed publicly announced gold sales, which resulted in big dollar declines, big rate rises
so this time around they leased gold which was sold
they didnt want to attract the attention of currency sharks
this is about a bigger banking scandal than Japan will EVER have
it is about fraud of our national gold treasure, its mortgage for the front purposes of producing for Clinton-Rubin-Greenspam a decade of supposed prosperity
now the gold margin calls have begun
and you will see the hell that such policy hath wrought
the dollar must unwind down
gold must unwind up
rates must unwind up
false prosperity must unwind to real hardship
our regional banks are healthier than Japan's
but our Central Bank and Major NYC banks are in trouble
they acted corruptly
I expect JPMorgan to go bankrupt perhaps by years end
and a gold meltup to occur as derivative explosion occurs
internal to the US, rate swapping is going on in a big way, large scale
corporations exchanged US longterm high rates for shorterm low rates
corps with poor shorterm credit contracted with corps with better longterm credit
the same swapping will happen across Dollar-Euro lines
borrow shorterm USdollar, sell it, buy longterm Euro
currency traders have no conscience
they will accelerate the USdollar back to where it should be
with some overshoot, happens all the time in currencies
recall that since 1990, the USdollar has risen a whopping 50%
what if we see just 5/8 of that retraced?
I am well aware of the consequences of a deep US recession
the world has come to depend upon the US economy too heavily
the Insane Strong Dollar Policy has exported mfg abroad
it also exported US dollar abroad in the form of TBonds
that process will reverse, but not without bigtime pain
manipulated markets always eventually get unwound, reversed
I expect a deep world recession, bordering on depression
with GOLD performing in spectacular fashion
no, more similarities than you might think with Japan
but with a really big important difference
corruption within our Central Bank and Big MoneyCenter NYC banks
this scandal will be one for the history books
and make Enron a footnote
one party in common to both: JPMorgan, Enron's mentor
one person in common to all: Robt Rubin (once my hero)
I call it the upcoming Fed Gold Scandal
/ jim |
