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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: yard_man who wrote (170940)6/6/2002 9:21:30 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
tippet after a severe surplus there are no "V" shape recoveries. What we are observing now in the US economy are several things.

1. stabilization and a slow and steady growth (from Gov. statistics, CEO's etc.)

2. a return to natural growth and new orders in line to historic numbers. (aligned with population growth etc.)

3. adaptation to work more efficient and as such improvement in productivity

4. slow hiring if at all due to increase productivity, JIT and fear of another recession

No we are not growing at 5% to 7% a year as in previous recoveries and also the hiring will be slower.

WS IMHO and people in general are very bearish and afraid which is usually a sign of bottoms.

No not high VIX of bull market but a disdain of stocks, preferring cash and hard assets e.g. Real estate.

VIX is usually driven by speculators not investors. Lack of speculation results in lower VIX

Now there is the valuation issue - well that is also out of the window for over a decade and stocks are treated like any other financial instrument nothing to do with value.

Same thing as to my case regarding the EUR in March it was worth 0.86, 3 months later it is worth 0.945, (a 9.9% change) nothing fundamental in both economies changed, but perception as the spread in economic activity inflation and productivity are the same as before, and both the EUR and USD are fiat money

Same with gold stocks which I suspect many now trade well above the real value of the gold reserves.

Long time ago I made a case that values are relative and dictated by perception and demand as we pay for them with fiat money which money we receive for our work, which in most instances is nonproductive - - e.g. we do not produce anything useful and get paid any way.

example government bureaucrats, bankers, attorneys, brokers or investment bankers, media and advertising and so on. All those people do not add any value to our quality of life but to the contrary make our lives more miserable, but they all are paid fiat money and think that they add value to society.

So "VALUE" is mute point as it is a relative and perceived issue, paid by fiat money which by itself has a perceptive value.

My point is that as soon as WS will smell some recovery in demand which IMHO will come they will trumpet it to the world and jack up prices at least 20%
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