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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.51

+6.1%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (64236)	6/6/2002 9:54:31 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 70976

<<capex as $5.5B during the cc today. So no business lost by AMAT>> It's not that simple (as I'm sure you know). Over time, capex for any semi, will be a (relatively) fixed % of sales. The consensus currently is that the recession is ending, but tech stock valuations are still too high, and the big unknown is the slope of the recovery. The more flattish that slope seems, the more overvalued stocks look. So, when a bellwether like INTC warns, it will ratchet down valuations across the board. And, even if Intel sticks with 2002 capex, we are now only 7 months away from 2003, so semi-equips will be trading on guesses of 2003 capex. Missing revenue forecasts, and falling gross margins, could cause Intel to cut 2003 capex. Expecially if it's a trend. But I agree with your conclusion: hang tough. JS@thoughthenooseisgettingawfullytight.com

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