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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

+2.7%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: orkrious who wrote (3459)	6/7/2002 9:24:20 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95617

Let's face it. All news is being viewed as negative. All of it. This is normal at major inflection points. Where is the ultimate bottom? Will Sept 01 lows hold? Why are you asking me? I surely don't have a crystal ball. All I do is watch carefully and try to weed out the hysterical nonsense and broken record opinions. Those who believe that the PC market will never rebound or that chip demand will never return are as wrong as the people who've been saying ignore the trends and buy into the down down drafts. For the record, I've clearly stated a number of times that those looking to go long should see the warning signs which are still yellow or red - depending on your investment time frame. Your point about profits going in the shitter doesn't seem appropriate here, IMO. Profits are already in the shitter but there are many signs that the worst for the industry is over. One of the questions that needs to be asked is are these (semi) companies a value buy? Many are approaching that level but those that are crossing the value line are in sectors that will be the slowest to recover. Take a look at TXCC. They have over $2/share in Net Assets less debt and the stock is selling for $0.90/share (edit was 0.80)!! One would assume that this is a great buy according to the numbers on the balance sheet. Yet this company won't buy back their own stock and their senior management isn't buying the stock. What does this tell us?? My reaction is avoid the stock like it has the plague but someone is buying at $0.90/share. I don't have all the answers, that's for sure.

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