Based on what I've always felt, and what I'm currently reading, it's hard to look at ORCL in any way but with sympathy.
That won't get you any points in value, but here's the point:
1. the market is NEVER wrong. That is to say that it values things based on perspective, and since that is a sum of many subjective opinions, they can never be said to be right or wrong. Hence, a bubble is perfectly rational behavior, just as a ridiculous sell off is perfectly rational. Individuals can see how irrational it all is, but we aren't dealing with individuals.
2. The overall trend is the overall trend. The best boat in the marina is still the best boat, but it doesn't ride any higher than the others when the tide goes out. This doesn't mean stocks aren't worth holding, you just have to remember the tide is going to come back in if you're patient. That can be painful, but very beneficial in the long run.
3. The tide doesn't come back in until the harbor stinks. In "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", Lawrence Livingston (Jesse Livermore) points out that he goes short until the corpse smells. Then he waits a bit and goes long.
This corpse, in particular, is putting up a mighty stink, but the tide is still out. I think most investors see the value of this company in the range it is currently residing. It has yet to build a new base of investors, however. |
