Following VLSI Research analysis implies to me that the sector recovery probably is imminent if not already underway.
Note that it describes WORLDWIDE equipment data, not just the US bookings and billings that we normally see from SEMI.
Also, I believe the monthly numbers are actuals rather than the 3 month moving average, seasonally adjusted numbers that SEMI releases. Thus the VLSIR data is more volatile if looking at month to month variations.
Of most interest is the Front End Capacity utilization having climbed back over 80% for the first time since early 2001.
Ian
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE VLSI RESEARCH INC
April?s Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Hits 1.15
San Jose, CA?Worldwide equipment billings reached $2.4B in April 2002 while bookings amounted to $2.7B, according to the May 15 edition of VLSI Research Inc's Industry Pulse Pro ®. The resulting book-to-bill ratio hit 1.15?a level not seen since May 2000.
Wafer processing equipment accounted for 57% of April's billings, followed by test at 23%, assembly at 6% and service and spares at 13.4%. On a month over-month basis, sales of assembly and test equipment grew the most, a pattern that has held up since the fourth quarter of 2001.
VLSI Research?s forecast for May, a seasonally weak month, calls for billings of $2.6B and bookings of $2.76 for a B:B ratio of 1.1.
The semiconductor picture is also strong. On a three month average basis, preliminary data for April have bookings at $US12.9B and billings at $US9.7, for a B:B ratio of 1.33. This is the highest ratio achieved in the last twenty-four months. The ratio will drop to 1.14 during seasonally weak May, when bookings are forecast at $11.4 and billings are at about $10B.
Front-end capacity utilization is ramping fast.April?s capacity utilization reached the 80% line for the first time since February of 2001. Moreover, it marks a rise since December's bottom of 69%. The 80% line is historically important because this is when most chipmakers start to upgrade existing facilities fairly aggressively.
The following table summarizes our latest findings. Semiconductor equipment billings and bookings are in millions of U.S. dollars:
B:B Front-End
Billings Bookings Ratio Capacity Utilization
February 2002 2179.0 1948.3 0.89 71.4%
March 2002 2669.5 2644.6 0.99 77.2%
April 2002* 2346.9 2705.3 1.15 80.2%
May 2002** 2573.5 2734.5 1.10 82.4%
*-Preliminary
**-Forecast
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