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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: FaultLine who wrote (31817)6/7/2002 1:31:13 PM
From: paul_philp  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 

Within a generous range, this system is very stable and adaptive. There have been some very accessible pieces published in Scientific American over the years that describe the current models and go on to explain the various sources and sinks in the global CO2 cycle.


Ken,

We humans have such a hard time with non-linear dynamic systems. Unfortunately our world consists mostly of dynamic systems and the linear forcasting tools we take for granted are not useful. There is an urgent need for a vocabulary to allow people to easily grok dynamic systems and the effect of feedback.

I work with high tech companies who preach the gospel of change to their customers. The dynamics of technology markets have been well understood for over a decade. Still, 90% of technology companies develop their business strategies based on linear extrapolation of the current situation.

This effect contributed to the Internet bubble. The entire world assumed a linear course for the impact of the Interent. Of course it does not work that way. Now, as we get closer to inflection points, the whole world is preaching the death of the Internet. Qu'ell surprise.

Imagine a model of health based on the principles of dynamic systems. What would a health care system look like then? How about reduce the cost of health care by having people avoid getting sick!

Paul@dynamic,complex,postmodern,soapboxes.com
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