Well, I had a 20% chance that phase II will close the nassacre, but it was not going to be, instead, we are going to get the worst, a Phase II low under 1500 (right now, I have a nominal low of 1459 next week, Wed still the target low, but now it could be pushed a little by about a day) a run, maybe as late as the following Tuesday (and the "model still show a "possibility of 1595", but frankly, I think that today's high of 1559 should be "it"), and then Phase III, if we do not go under 1459 next week, I have a "fork", one model has 1400 (plus minus 15), the other just above next week low. Details depend a lot on how we do early next week and the type of bounce we get. The 1296 I am still reserving as a potential for the Autumn, but as always, as long as the MM's do not show us the white in their eyes, the lower the target for the bottom of this nassacre. I did increase exposure a little today with few OB's and am down to 72% cash. At least the readdition to the core, POOL, behaved relatively nicely during this tumultuous day (g).
Zeev
Zeev |
