Value.
I love technology! I'm a programmer/DBA by trade. I'm an Amateur Radio operator. I've got a a half dozen PC's around the house. I just bought some high-end speakers for my audio system. My TV's stuck on the Discovery Channel.
The problem with "TECHLAND" is that that description encompasses everything from Cisco to [insert penny tech stock name here], and that's too wide of a net to cast.
The problem is that there's a severe cut in capital spending by the telcos, and those cuts will stay in place until the consolidation completes, and guess what? It hasn't even started! This includes local high speed access.
The problem is that every company has a halfway decent TCP/IP network, and thus doesn't need to build one.
The problem is that the PC's connected to those networks, as well as the ones in people's homes, actually run pretty well, and don't need to be replaced.
The problem is that everyone who wants a cellphone has one already.
February 23rd, 2001, after being stuck in an Oracle DBA training class and watching everything I own go down about 7% a day all week, I raced home, and hit the "SELL" button on everything I owned: JDSU, NTAP, EMC, SUNW, AMCC, PMCS, FNSR, NOK, TQNT...the list goes on and on.
Those stocks were WELL off their highs by February 23rd (seemingly "too late to sell"), but selling that day was the smartest thing I've ever done.
It will be a "stock picker's" market. I own a couple of micro-cap tech companies with some potential (I hope!). We shall see. In the mean time, my best performer over the last 12 months has been a small pizza and beer chain. They're growing about 30% YOY. It's not sexy like tech, but pizza and beer are pretty good, too.
All IMHO, of course. I wish you well in your investing.
Have a great weekend,
Steve |
