Those names of course are part of my holdings. They should continue to do well, but the key is to pay attention to relative values now. I think the idea of a rising tide off of what were "free" companies will not necessarily work in the next leg. In that leg we will need to find the real value, and that's more demanding. I see the bigger and mid tier PM stocks as a source of funds. That's easy for me to say as I don't own any.
As we move down the food chain I also see the more advanced junior plays as a source of funds. I don't want to put more money into them. In fact I think NSU and BAY can be sold outright and reloaded into something else. On the rest (MFL, WTC, GBG, ELD, YMC and CBD) the decision here becomes more difficult because those companies are nicely financed and are still exploring, and in fact are now quite active. That activity is going to put the majors and mid tiers increasingly under the gun. I've taken some profits, but my actual positions are still large because of the price appreciation. And those names are where the takeouts can happen as well. So I've become more trading oriented with those, carefully watching for parabolic moves to sell into. BGI, MOY and MAN are in the advanced class but are unduly cheap because of other issues (apparently Africa and the Tambogrande social conflict). They can be bought here IMO.
The best opportunity is in the next tiers down. Nobody is really paying enough attention to these, but behind the scenes the serious insiders are getting positioned to play real exploration efforts. I hesitate to mention them because I'm trying to get good prices myself and they are thin. What I'm looking for is activity, good geology, and the good geological teams that have survived the downturn. That's where my reload money is going and I'm open to suggestions. Claude? Jim Steele? Do not chase these though. Buy the quiet periods, nibble and spread out. So far I'd mention the following in this class. Others may have good names too, but in reality there aren't too many that really fit my geology, activity, and geologist criteria. I think somewhere in there is a major discovery, and maybe a fifty bagger. You only need one of those by the way, even if the others never work out.
ARQ, AHR, CTQ, GNG, IMR, NPG, RDU, SUL, RFM, RCW. The Kimber Resources IPO needs to be considered as well.
It was also evident from the Vancouver Conference that some major efforts are underway in the Red Lake-Birch Uchi and Abitibi belts of Canada. The following are real companies, selling cheaply or reasonably, and might have a shot at something: Fronteer, Rubicon (has already moved), Conquest, First Au, Glenhaven, Pelangio, Redstar, Wolden (has moved on discovery). Claude is a bigger name at RL.
Also the Botswood Basin play could get interesting. Altius has had a big run on their ABX JV, but I'd also mention that Grayd (John McCluskey of AAS' company), Moydow, and Candente (plus a good Peruvian package)are there in a big way. BC is also picking up noticeably. Besides SUL, Rimfire was mentioned frequently by the smarter people in Vancouver. I spoke with all these companies and am inclined to pick up a few. I'm still doing due diligence, and would welcome inputs from others on the Canadian area plays.
<NGT or AAS>
Either one is fine. I don't really think NGT should sell lower than a 15% discount though. I see this as a company building exercise evolving rather quickly into an excellent mid tier (and corresponding premium valuation). In some respects I've become a quasi-insider here, so for me to be effective in my efforts, I really need to keep things under wraps as far as these boards. My 2002 goal however is straightforward, and that's to try and influence an effective and fair merger of the two companies under one roof. All shareholders will benefit mightily if that happens.
NGT is bringing in (soon to be announced) a top Mexican mining guy that adds some real meat to their management. That combined with Matter's active mind might be promising.
<start your news letter!.>
Not interested in that, but let me test something else. I think there's enough opportunity that I am interested in exploring the startup of a small venture fund so that American investors aren't solely restricted to the overpriced US listed names only. We could also avail the private placement (VERY difficult and restrictive against Americans, the fund could overcome this) market in Canada. It's also a good way to diversify against some of the risk of only owning a handful of junior names. I'd invest my own money along side. We'd need a few bucks to justify the accounting and reg expense, and the money would have to be locked for at least a year, but if anybody is interested send me an e mail or PM. Going to need more than two of you though <G>. |
