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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Eric L who wrote (51638)	6/8/2002 1:35:40 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (5) of 54805

Eric, [Although Mike Buckley feels that wireless data is not yet in the chasm, I do - but thats another discussion]. Recent data is making me think that it is indeed in the chasm. My fear for investors is that they will mistake the rapid increase of adoption symptomatic of crossing the chasm with the rapid increase of a tornado. The first bowling pin was taken out some time ago - SMS messaging The important point of the bowling-pin analogy is that when one pin falls, it knocks down a couple of other pins. The reason I don't place a lot of emphasis on SMS as a bowling pin is because I'm not able to identify the adjacent bowling pins that are likely to be knocked down because of adoption of SMS. I'd love nothing more than for you or others to change my mind about that. Related to the ease of leveraging one bowling pin to knock down an adjacent pin, the best innovation for investors is when a highly discontinuous innovation for vendors is very continuous for the end user. Perhaps it's nothing more than my personal outlook regarding technology adoption :), but I see the use of data using a handheld device as being particularly discontinuous for the end users. We have to buy special hardware that is data-compatbile. We have to learn how to use the operating system. When we identify a particular application that we like, we might have to switch to a different carrier and that might also mean having to change our handheld hardware. And if we like two particular apps not offered by the same carrier, that means making a choice between the two instead of being able to use both of them. Worse yet, that might mean making yet another choice regarding the technology each carrier uses. I don't see those issues as particularly continuous for the end user. --Mike Buckley

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