I have not followed J.T. but if he is calling for a low next week, he does not differ from the turnips, the question is if that is going to be "the low" or not, or if the September lows are going to be breached, right now, I am still in the camp that September was the lows, but that "cycle" is coming to an end in few weeks. I used to follow the specialist shorting on NYSE, however, the data are always two weeks late, so i stopped using them for quite sometime. I don't see any public orgy of shorting, the short interest has certainly not gone "agog", and the public was surely not buying puts with abandon, recently. Au contraire, the institutions have been buying loads of puts on the indices, possibly sufficient insurance against that net 770 MM shares in their inventory (not even a day trading on the NYSE). In any event, my worst case scenario sees a rally no later than the end of this month or if we get serious capitulation before (not even a mild sign of that yet).
In edit, I just tried to see what are J.T.'s positions, I checked currently, he is 100% long, I also checked 4/22, the day I donned my bear suit, and he was long, and at randomn on 4/27 he was still long. Do you know if he stayed long through the whole period from 4/22, or did he took stuff off the table in between and just recently redeployed?
Zeev |
