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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: getanewlife who wrote (76384)6/9/2002 8:11:51 AM
From: Rick Storm  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
I wonder if you have done anything else with the nyse shorting numbers. It seems to me that the relative ratio for the post bubble or atleast dec 01, no longer has the same dynamics. I wonder if the ratio itself has to be higher at the bottom, ie, instead of week of 1.1 pub/spec, then you need 1.3+; also the absolute numbers ie, the pub is 400 and the spec are 300 etc .

Perhaps, the indicator is no longer useful and in fact a sign of the usual wrongness of the crowd unless at extremes. If the indicator has been positive for 16/17 weeks and the market has been in a range or gone down, this is actually ominous in terms of market direction.

Have you looked at the ratio just prior to the bear market rallies to see this year if the indicator has any merit. As Zeev has pointed out, the 2 week lag makes it tedious to get this info unless you are well organized and
commited. I suffer from having a very full time job and have not been able to do this!


Have you looked at the ratio of member to public-- as this may make the indicator more useful.

Please understand that these suggestions are not critical; I wish I had time to dissect this tool, as I think the info still contains value.

thanks, Rick
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