SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: J.T. who wrote (12626)6/9/2002 4:58:07 PM
From: Square_Dealings  Read Replies (2) of 19219
 
Rydex Assets

Having observed the Rydex assets in the XAU funds vs the XAU it seems that;

1. A new high in total assets which is not confirmed by a new high in the index or sector is indicative of a top (As occurred on June 3 in the Rydex XAU)

2. A significant drop in assets which is not confirmed by a corresponding drop in the index is bullish.

3. A significant increase in assets which is not confirmed by a corresponding increase in the index is bearish.

So using this I still find that since the XAU assets have dropped by around 20% from the high on June 3 that the XAU has only declined by 10% and so this is still bullish. While it may not be time to jump in I guess the best entry would be when the Rydex assets decline is no longer met by a decline in the XAU or that the XAU actually increases on a small increase or declining Rydex assets.

Biotech assets on the other hand have increased in the last week (but not significantly) while the index has declined. So it still seems bearish for biotechs.

Another good example of a bullish set up is the energy fund. Assets dropped 16% over the last week but the Rydex energy fund price only dropped 3.6%.

Does this analysis seem valid? It seems this way of measuring input (total assets change) vs output (change in index or sector value) may be better for prediction since it will adjust for the fact that an asset class may increase or decrease in value without more money being put in or taken out. Not sure if I am explaining this clearly but for example the XAU assets could increase without more money going in if the value of the XAU increases. In that case it may not mean that its overbought. It seems that overbought conditions occur when more money goes in and the price doesnt go up, regardless of what the absolute value is of the total assets.

M.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News