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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: Paul Shread who wrote (41375)6/10/2002 10:05:26 AM
From: reaper  Read Replies (2) of 209892
 
<<The Titan/Tempest numbers give me pause...>>

Has anyone here considered if in a BEAR market, the way we read the Rydex numbers (in the prior bull market) is no longer relevant? For a bull market to be a bull market, more people have to be buying stocks than selling them; i.e. the "crowd" is right. The reverse is true in a bear market. It may in fact be true that more people are bearish than bullish, but the point is that the "crowd" is by, definition, correct. It is only when the crowd gets to extremes that it is wrong (i.e. when the crowd becomes a raving, uncontrolled mob, like say the bleachers at Yankee Stadium <g>)

I am pretty sure that Allan has pointed out that Rydex has not been that useful in the last year. I think this is why. Its a BEAR market, and our old indicators honed over years of "buy the dip" won't work in a "sell the rally" market.

Cheers
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