There was an excellent article written a number of years ago titled "The Tragedy of The Commons." Let me see whether it's on line.
Yes, here it is.
dieoff.com
Here's the relevant passage:
The tragedy of the commons develops in this way. Picture a pasture open to all. It is to be expected that each herdsman will try
to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons. Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for centuries
because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying capacity of the
land. Finally, however, comes the day of reckoning, that is, the day when the long-desired goal of social stability becomes a
reality. At this point, the inherent logic of the commons remorselessly generates tragedy.
As a rational being, each herdsman seeks to maximize his gain. Explicitly or implicitly, more or less consciously, he asks, "What
is the utility to me of adding one more animal to my herd?" This utility has one negative and one positive component.
1. The positive component is a function of the increment of one animal. Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the
sale of the additional animal, the positive utility is nearly + 1.
2. The negative component is a function of the additional overgrazing created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects
of overgrazing are shared by all the herdsmen, the negative utility for any particular decisionmaking herdsman is only a fraction
of - 1.
Adding together the component partial utilities, the rational herdsman concludes that the only sensible course for him to pursue
is to add another animal to his herd. And another.... But this is the conclusion reached by each and every rational herdsman
sharing a commons. Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his herd without limit
-- in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society
that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.
This theory now applies to the seas. Barring true international cooperation, now that man has the technical ability to fish any species to virtual extinction, and given that the marginal utility to a fisherman is to keep fishing even when the stocks are becoming depleted, there is no technical way to avert this tragedy.
And there does not seem to be the international political will to avert it.
So it is, it seems to me, inevitable.
Pessimistic, yes. Realistic? I fear so. |
