John: the last paragraph doesn't sound quite right:
You wrote:
>>This extreme conservatism results in 80,000 patients in US at annual wholesale acquisition cost of $5,000, resulting in revenues of $400 mil just from nelf for fiscal 1999. If this 400 mil sounds reasonable, a projected EPS of $5.60 (based on 18 mil shares) for fiscal 1999 is very reasonable. The 1997 price tgt of $140, from those sell side analyst, is based on a 30 multiple of F1999E EPS of $5.60 discounted at 15% over 1.5 yrs. , I sincerely believe AGPH will hit 140 within the next 8 months.<<
(1) JT gets some of this stuff. I cant't remember if it is profit or revenue.
(2) If they can bring 25% to the bottom line after taxes and no JT then
your numbers look good. However, getting 25% of gross revenues
to Earnings is one huge leap.
(3) If, in 2000, competitors are beginning to penetrate AGPH's market
then the PE ratio may not be as high as 30, it might be 15, which would bring AGPH to 70 for 1997.
John, if you can make a good case for doubling your revenue
assumptions, then I feel pretty safe at 140 per share in 1997..
Bill
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