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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: High Country Trader who wrote (12529)6/11/2002 12:45:55 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
This indicator has NEVER FAILED<<<<< Seems like it already has failed since there has been massive accumulation beginning in 2000.

As a stand alone indicator regarding the NYSE members net balance index - you have a valid point that the boyz were early as they accumulated a net balance 657,185 million shares in 2000.

However, when you weight in the specialists the public only shorted less than 1/3 of the time above the specialists in 16 out of 52 weeks in 2000. And only once did the public short above the NYSE members and they squeaked out that one week feat. In 2001, the public shorted above the specialists in 24 weeks and eclipsed the NYSE members in 9 weeks. So far in 2002, the public is 22 out of 22 above the specialists and 5 out of 22 weeks short above the NYSE members...

Given that our current state of economic affairs is nowhere near the doldrums it was at the end of 1974, I doubt you will see the level of pervasive selling from the market similar to 74. In fact, the risk is missing the initial explosion on the upside that will give you the greatest bang for the buck on your return. And it is this next blast-off which will forever give you the ultimate financial freedom you yearn for when you decide to walk away from the daily market grind for good.

Best Regards, J.T.
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