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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3476)6/11/2002 7:00:56 AM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (2) of 95617
 
I will reiterate and reinforce the evidence you present for high-end utilization rates. Well done.

The question is, as it has been for ~3-4 weeks now, why are the equipment stocks plunging...with no cessation in sight? The vast majority of investors are aware of the utilization data, and this info was NOT a revelation last week.

But these investors are not responding whatsoever.

I've been around this sector too long to believe that the stocks are somehow out of sync with the industry. Rather, I have learned by painful experience (i.e. by owning shares in the industry thereby having my views completely distorted by my shareholder status) that the direction of stock movement does indeed predict the health of the industry.

These are not the charts of an industry in recovery finance.yahoo.com

So while all the data appear to indicate a 'robust', recovering industry, the equipment stocks, especially over the past 2 weeks, strongly suggest this 'recovery' only concerns a relatively minor fraction of the industry...or that investors are digesting the news from INTC etc. and concluding that the prospects for a high level of equipment demand over the next 6-12 months are modest.

Best wishes,
Scott
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